The company remains high risk, but the reward, which is potentially exponentially high, is becoming more realistic. Moderna is going through significant turbulence: The growth story is starting, and the future outlook is fantastic, but Covid vaccine sales are abating. Investors that can remain calm and ignore the noise may find this an excellent starting point to invest in one of the most innovative companies in the world.

With any investment, one helpful exercise is asking yourself what you know and what you don’t know.

Knowing the unknowns (which are a lot) will help you understand the risk involved and align your risk tolerance with your financial goals.

Here is what we know about Moderna:

• The fastest vaccine history was the Mumps vaccine, which took around four years. Coronavirus vaccines were developed within months, a true scientific miracle.
• Moderna created the most effective Covid vaccine in the world, beating much more significant players like Janssen Pharmaceuticals and Pfizer.
• The mRNA technology works.
• A biotech’s r&d budget is typically high because drug development has at least a 90% failure rate during clinical development. Luckily though, Moderna is flush with cash.

Here is what we do not know:

• We only know some of the applications for mRNA outside of Covid. It has great potential, but the market size and profitability still need to be discovered.
• How many of the clinical trials will disappoint or fail?
• How valuable is Moderna’s “intellectual property,” and can it be protected and enforced?

Moderna stock is down over 77% from the stock’s highs. This is unbelievable for the opportunity they present. I will take the risk with Moderna because the application with mRNA is so vast many analysts fail to grasp its full potential. Moderna is one of the most disruptive companies in the world. If we enter a potentially exponential growth phase with medicine, it could create a violent run-up for its stock for the next few decades. It has the cash to stay solvent and outlast its smaller competitors. The cash also provides for safety, allowing them ample time to unleash the potential of mRNA technology.

Moderna is stuck in a vicious narrative that the demand for Covid vaccinations needs to be high to drive revenue growth. I do not anticipate another pandemic anytime soon, but Covid-19 will never completely disappear. Moderna will likely capitalize on Covid vaccines as it shifts towards the private market. The government bought vaccine doses at a stark discount, $20.69 per dose, whereas on the market, it could have a price between $110-130 per dose.

Each person’s #cancer is different, which is why it can be difficult to treat. Hear more from @cleoabram about how we’re researching an individualized treatment approach specific to each person's #tumor, with the goal of training their immune system to fight back. pic.twitter.com/XFboEoiiUq

— Moderna (@moderna_tx) August 2, 2023

Most importantly, the government will no longer control the narrative of how these vaccines get advertised on the market. There is a reason why medical & pharmaceutical sales reps exist. Having Anthony Fauci and Joe Biden as the face of the vaccine campaign was embarrassing. The messaging got political, and the spokespeople for the movement needed to be more compelling. The campaign got predictably hijacked by extremists and conspiracy theorists spewing crackpot theories. The government did more harm than good for mRNA vaccines in the short term, but in the extended horizon, it will be more of a bump in the road rather than a giant sinkhole.

Today’s narrative is stuck on Covid vaccines when it will slowly shift over the next six months. Investors need to stay focused on the bigger picture, where future growth is limitless. The attention should remain on mRNA technology and not one vaccine. In the future, we can look at the Covid vaccine similarly to the Apple Computer. Moderna has in its pipeline the iPod, iPhone, iPad, AirPods, and Apple Watch in development. The future consists of 48 mRNA programs with vaccines for RSV, HIV, VZV, Lyme Disease, Zikah, and many more diseases. Even current investors may have tunnel vision and see mRNA vaccines only applicable to infectious diseases. Still, there are potential treatments for food allergies, cancer, heart attacks, strokes, and more. Based on the stock price, the company may appear to be crashing, but this plane has yet to leave the runway and has decades of soaring growth. This is an excellent opportunity to start an investment in the next Apple of Biotechnology.