“Investing is a business where you can look very silly for a long period of time before you are proven right.” Bill Ackman

A valuable lesson I learned is to view investing as a probability game, not a possibility game. Jeff Bezos says that if you have a 10% chance at 100x returns, you should always take it. The stock market is full of possibilities, but understanding the probabilities of risk and reward can separate overperformers from underperformers. 10% odds seem low, but for exponential gains, it creates a rare investment opportunity. I will discuss two companies with the infrastructure and platform to net a 100x return. These two companies have better than moonshot odds of becoming global industry leaders. Although many pieces need to come together for either to 100x, both stocks have sold off significantly but are more proven than highly speculative bets. Before investing in these companies, assessing your financial goals and risk tolerance is crucial. Knowing yourself and your investor portfolio is critical to see if these two companies are worth investing in.

Moderna: Ground-breaking technology on the path towards a medical revolution.

Moderna has created a new class of medicine, producing best-in-class drugs at unprecedented speed. The company has proven its technology and has steep financial resources to support a vast pipeline of respiratory, latent, cancer, and rare disease vaccines. While 90% of drug candidates fail in clinical trials, Moderna’s bioplatform is a game changer with a success rate higher than the industry average. Think of bioplatform as the iOs of pharma, which expedites vaccine development with shorter turnaround times. It could be the first company to produce a melanoma or lung cancer vaccine. Even if Moderana doesn’t develop a holy grail cancer vaccine, they have 3-6 drugs that will likely get FDA approval in the next 3-7 years.

Moderna likely has a fair value price of somewhere between $90-120 today based on the COVID-19 vaccine market. Fair value is a fugazi term because it is highly subjective and based on a static environment with no buyers and sellers. Investing in Moderna with their pipeline no longer priced in the stock could be a gift. At peak, Moderna’s stock priced in many assumptions that have yet to happen, and even though a lot of those assumptions have yet to materialize, the company is firing at all cylinders, and the growth story remains unchanged.

Moderna has better odds than most clinical-stage biopharmaceutical companies, and the growth is still early. When I invested in Nvidia in 2016, its data center revenue was just a blip, and most people invested in it because of its growing gaming revenue. Most investors did not have the foresight to know how its data center business would accelerate so quickly. I look at Moderna similarly. The stock trades on lagging Covid shots despite the company being more than just about one vaccine. Nvidia was trading downward based on rapidly declining gaming revenue when it had a skyrocketing data center division. Moderna has a world-class Pipeline matching companies 100 years older than them. I am betting that Pipeline has a data center-like revenue-producing drug that will drastically propel the company’s growth in the future. I have no problem remaining patient until Moderna can transform from a one-hit wonder to a vaccine empire.

Roblox: A new human experience and a potential advertisers dream.

Roblox is a highly volatile stock. Like Moderna, they are both young companies, so investors should expect some hiccups, although Roblox is more combustible. Think of them as more like the Kanye West of growth stocks: Innovative but highly misunderstood and explosive.

Roblox presents the best-in-class growth in the gaming industry. When you look at Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts, and Take-two Interactive, they have a business model for producing hit games like Grand Theft Auto or Call of Duty. It can take 3-10 years to make a big game, whereas on Roblox, thousands of professional developers generate content. More content will likely equate to more hits, creating a more steady stream of consistent growth. The secret of Roblox is that it isn’t a game; it is an experience. That is the unique property of the company. You see immersive ads or portal ads, which is something other games are not doing.

When you look inside the inner workings of Roblox, you see more than just a video game publisher but a company creating a unique human experience that presents the evolution of a direct-to-consumer platform. Being an investor in Roblox is not for the faint of heart. The company has much to prove to show they can be consistently cash flow positive, but they have a blueprint in place. The platform is similar to a large plot of land, but in this case, a virtual endless plot of land. The potential is there, and although the ride may feel like a roller coaster, the story has a good chance of playing out.