Alibaba is Still a Screaming Buy!

Alibaba (BABA) is still a screaming buy. It is an undervalued growth stock that will likely 3x in price in the next 5 years or less.

  • Big profits and gains are made during intense fear and uncertainty. This is usually the best time to buy, not sell.
  • Baba’s income statement/growth/balance sheet remains pristine. The headlines have nothing to do with Baba’s business. Jack Ma hasn’t been chairman of the company for nearly two years.
  • Macro headwinds like China Regulations will always exist. They exist in every country/continent. They will never go away.
  • If you fear China that much, you should probably not own great stocks like Tesla, Starbucks, Apple, Nike, etc… you may want to avoid investing altogether since almost every company touches China.
  • China makes up 17% of the entire global economy. One day it could overtake the United States. They are too big to fail. Why do you think John Cena or Mark Zuckerberg can speak Mandarin? Like it or not, China is here to stay now and in the future. They will be a major player in digital innovation and growth.
  • Although the majority of my investments are in U.S companies, ignoring China Tech entirely is too risky.
  • What is more likely, Alibaba reaching a stock price of 592.14 or Amazon reaching 10,098.72? The answer seems obvious. What’s holding BABA down is regulatory scrutiny which goes in cycles. Amazon, Google, Facebook, Twitter will also go through regulatory scrutiny in the near and mid-term future. Remember, there are multiple elected officials from both parties that support breaking up U.S big tech and bringing on federal lawsuits against these companies.
  • Two key traits of any long-term investor are patience and calmness.

This is Alibaba’s Cambridge Analytica moment.

If you forgot what happened to Facebook, I’ll provide a brief refresher. Cambridge Analytica was a British political consulting firm that took information from more than 50 million Facebook users without their consent. It has used Facebook to collect data that was used by the Trump campaign in 2016 to target voters. The result:

  • Numerous top executives left the company. Former executives trashed the company on media.
  • Shares fell more than 24% on March 26th
  • The company lost $134 billion in value
  • Facebook’s favorability rating fell significantly. Numerous celebrities, politicians, and important people in the tech community supported the #DeleteFacebook movement.

The reason why Facebook didn’t die, is because their ecosystem is too vast. Cambridge Analytica was a small bump in the road. They have become so embedded in our culture, it is essentially impossible to delete them. Buying FB stock during the scandal and holding today would have been a great investment opportunity. Many investors however were being prisoners of the moment.

I see China’s regulation as Alibaba’s Cambridge Analytica moment. Many smart people looking at BABA today, are only looking at a page in a long book still being written. Alibaba in 2021 is a much stronger company than Facebook was in 2018. Their financial and cultural reach in China is larger than Facebook’s reach is in the United States.

The Chinese Communist Party couldn’t delete Alibaba, even if they tried. The genie is out of the bottle, it is simply too late. Unless the CCP’s goal is to cause irreparable harm to their economy, coolers heads will eventually prevail. BABA is still growing in China and expanding its reach outside of the country as well. They will kiss the ring and oblige with The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). They will do the same political lobbying/dance that mega-corporations do in the U.S. The players are different but the game being played here is essentially the same.

Partial Portfolio Reveal

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This is a partial reveal of my entire investing portfolio showing how weighted I am in certain stocks. Just some quick random thoughts.

  • RVLV is my highest position obviously but I am comfortable with it. Remember, it didn’t start out at 16%. During the beginning of the pandemic it was barely 5%. I will hold onto this company for a long time. I have so much conviction in this company I wouldn’t start trimming my position until it made up 25% of my portfolio.
  • I have been contemplating trimming some of my initial position on GOOGL. I already have done so for AAPL, AMZN, TSLA and NVDA. I probably could never sell the majority of my position though. The company still has a lot of growth left.
  • I will view my holdings in Index/ETF/Mutual Funds as a safety position. It is tempting to sell them and invest in individual stocks, however I view this as my original floor of when I started as an investor.
  • I am quite happy regarding my Cryptocurrency position. Many “fund experts” are saying you should only invest 3-5% in Cryptocurrency. The majority of my cryptocurrency is in BlockFi gaining monthly interest just for holding it. I kind of view it like a high-growth dividend stock.
  • If I had to predict, I could see Crypto, NVDA, LMND and Chinese Stocks being a larger part of my portfolio in the future. LMND is in its early growth stages as a company. Chinese stocks like BABA and Tencent are highly discounted right now.
  • The rest of my holdings consists of other companies that I do not have a big enough position too list. I am obviously trying to find the right mix of diversification/concentration.

Forget FANG, Look into MINT

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Jim Cramer, the well-known host of “Mad Money,” created the acronym FANG in 2013, a cute play on words to describe four popular/high-growth tech stocks:

Facebook
Amazon
Netflix
Google

Before that, in 2010, Cramer created the acronym CANDIES, which preceded FANG.

Chipotle
Apple
Netflix
Deckers Outdoor
Intuitive Surgical
Express Scripts
Salesforce.com

Many of these stocks from FANG and CANDIES are still worth owning today; however, do these companies still hold their weight in 2021? It may be time to coin a new acronym to reflect the high-growth companies for this upcoming decade.

I purpose MINT. If you own any of these stocks, I recommend you hold them. If you don’t own them, consider adding them to your portfolio. These are all long-term holds for at least 3-5 years. These companies represent some of the best growth in the hottest sectors. I would expect these companies to still be highly profitable by 2030.

Mercadolibre (MELI) is a mix of Amazon, Paypal, Square, and eBay all-in-one. It mainly operates in Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico, but 18 total countries in Latin America. This was a great growth stock before the pandemic and an even better stock post-pandemic. If you believe that eCommerce and fintech will continue to grow, believe in Mercadolibre, whose e-commerce revenue grew over 90% in 2020. They are following an Amazon script in a region ripe for opportunity.

The other reason to love Mercadolibre is Mercado Pago. Great growth companies can expand and become leaders outside of their core business. Even if they lose market share to their competitors, the opportunity and expansion in other countries are nearly unlimited. Having a smaller market share in eCommerce or fintech is somewhat irrelevant if the overall market continues to expand rapidly. Latin America is still largely underserved financially. Many still don’t have bank accounts or internet access. As Latin America fintech booms over the next decade, Mercadolibre’s overall ecosystem will grow. Oh, did I mention they are also getting into bitcoin?

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) They have a monopoly on minimally invasive robotic surgeries. They are the leader today and will likely be the leader a decade from now. There is competition ahead however, this industry will continue to grow rapidly. As innovation and technology improve, the number of procedures assisted by robotic surgeries will increase. The population is getting older meaning demand will continue.

Nvidia (NVDA) One of the biggest mistakes investors can make is the idea you need to invest in a new idea or the next big movement. Don’t turn stocks picking like fashion trends. Your oldest idea may be the best idea and make you wealthy. Here is the theme I will repeat: Nvidia was a great company before the pandemic. It is an even better stock post-pandemic. Nvidia gets the majority of its revenue from its graphics processing units (GPUs). When you think of GPUs, think of Artificial intelligence, Video Games, Computers, Crypto Mining. Nvidia has recently expanded into data processing units (DPUs) and that business could be more profitable than its chip business. Nvidia has been smashing earnings and could soon become the most dominant tech company in the world eventually.

Tencent (TCEHY) Tencent is a mix of Facebook, Activision Blizzard, and Spotify, all rolled into one company. It is much bigger than that. Think of the Berkshire Hathaway east. If you are interested in growth companies, you cannot ignore the most populated country in the world. There are geographical/macroeconomic concerns, but with risk comes a great growth story. Ignoring all Chinese growth and having too little or no exposure to this industry will be a potentially enormous missed opportunity for any investor. Tencent is a high-growth company with its hands in other high-growth companies like Tesla. Please do not ignore it.

My Best Investing Advice

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Investing can seem daunting but it really shouldn’t be. Here is my best advice for all investors new and old;

  • Hold for the long-term

Studies have shown holding on for the long-term, even during significant down periods will build wealth. Macroeconomic/Geopolitical risk will always exist however reliable companies tend to trend upwards in the long term. Investing in the long-term will also save you money from short-term capital gains taxes.

  • Less about IQ/Financial acumen, more about temperament and psychology.

I think Warren Buffett said it best:

“You don’t need tons of IQ in this business.” “You need a stable personality,” he continued. “You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against the crowd because this is not a business where you take polls. It’s a business where you think.”

Warren Buffett on investing

  • Beginners should start with ETFs/Index Funds/Mutual Funds before Stocks

If you have never invested, I would advise starting on buying an index of stocks before single stocks. It could better prepare you mentally. Beginners should consider starting a new portfolio like baking a cake from scratch. You have to start somewhere, starting with a large basket of stocks is a great way to begin in your investing journey.

  • Savings and indexes shouldn’t be your end game

The ability to save your money is important and a prerequisite before investing, however, it shouldn’t be your end goal. Savings and fixed cash investments will not pay off in the long term. Indexes provide a nice safety net/buffer however taking on risk can pay off in the long term.

  • Have an investor mentality

When you buy a stock, you are an investor of that company, so act like it. Make decisions on the fundamental news of that company and not the stock price, which may not accurately reflect the value of that company’s worth.

  • Always be invested in the market or be prepared to do so

You should always be allocated in the market but have some cash reserves available when the right opportunity comes. Not being in the market, even 1 day could mean losing out on significant gains. Not all of us are cash-rich or have a six-figure income to provide us with consistent investing capital. I would consider selling stocks of companies you have less confidence in if you have stocks in mind with a higher conviction to invest in. When the stock market is “good,” or companies are hitting 52-week highs/all-time highs, that is usually the time I start building my cash reserves. When the stock market is “bad,” that’s usually when I consider buying. You need to think about your next move and the move after that. Look at investing like a game of chess.

  • Stay diversified but concentrated

Stay diversified in different stocks, sectors, sized companies (small, mid, large-cap) risk allocation. Most brokerage accounts have tools to show how diversified your portfolio is. If you have multiple brokerage accounts, a good tool I use is Claritus which is a free way to track all your investments. Diversification is important, but your portfolio should always remain focused on your own investment principles.

Remember, long-term investing is a beautiful struggle. It is not a way to get rich quickly. Don’t think of buying stocks like buying a lottery ticket but a slow burn towards something great. Not investing at all? I would describe that as simply a struggle. Without investing, you could see your net worth erode in the long term.

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Why I Love Revolve Group Stock

As we navigate past the pandemic I am bullish on Revolve Group, Inc. (NYSE: RVLV). Just a bit about Revolve, from their website on the investor relations page:

CREDIT: RAISSAGERONA/INSTAGRAM

REVOLVE is the next-generation fashion retailer for Millennial and Generation Z consumers. As a trusted, premium lifestyle brand, and a go-to online source for discovery and inspiration, we deliver an engaging customer experience from a vast yet curated offering totaling over 49,000 apparel, footwear, accessories and beauty styles.

Revolve Group, Inc. – Investor Relations

When I evaluate a company, I try not to look at the stock price, I look at the fundamentals of the company. Where will Revolve be in a year, five years, a decade, longer?

In my quick analysis, I believe Revolve is the future of fashion retail. E-commerce sales in 2021 account for roughly 18-19% of total retail sales. Over time that number will only get bigger and Revolve is already years ahead of their competition. They utilize social media influence marketing which their competitors are just starting to incorporate. Investing in RVLV is essentially buying a long-term call option on E-commerce growth, Social Media growth, and Influencer marketing, all trending upwards.

I own RVLV stock. It makes up the highest percentage of my portfolio. Now it wasn’t the biggest when I bought it aggressively in early 2020, but I don’t plan on selling any of my shares anytime soon. I will admit, the past six months I have been tempted to sell at least a portion of my position as the stock price dramatically increased but the more I evaluate the company, I see no reason to.

Anytime you are considering buying a stock, you should have at least a few fundamental reasons why, aside from the stock price. Here are a few of my whys:

  • The secret sauce of Revolve is in its technology/AI/data analytics

Competition in this space is fierce however Revolve uses social media and influencer marketing which gives it a leg up over its competition. Sure, other fashion retailers will eventually adopt these sale marketing strategies but this is what Revolve has already been doing and their E-commerce presence is strong and growing. Just to give a comparison, on Revolve’s official Instagram page, they have 4.7 million followers, compared to Lululemon, 3.7 mil, Nordstrom, 3.4 mil, and The Gap, 3.1 mil.

While these fashion retailers are playing catch up, Revolve’s brand will only get stronger. Brand name recognition in retail is vital. Last year, for example, I won a free Yeti cooler that was retail worth $200. I sold that Yeti Cooler for its retail cost. Now, why a consumer would pay $200 for a Yeti Consumer instead of a Coleman cooler worth about $50? I cannot provide a logical answer however based on Yeti’s sales, that just shows you the power of a strong brand name. Using an example of another fashion retailer, Lululemon sells sweatpants/yoga pants for over $100 and they have consistent growth. This shows a strong Brand name + Successful marketing = Really good gross profit margins and higher average order value. There is no need for Yeti to discount their coolers or for Lululemon to mark down on yoga pants. Revolve’s juicy margins are a big reason why they have an impressive financial balance sheet.

  • This is a Warren Buffet type stock:

Warren Buffet touts companies with strong management teams, consistent cash flow/revenue, and minimal debt. This fits Revolve to a tee. A management team with a strong financial/analytical background in an industry that has relied too heavily on art/trends instead of science/data. A company with nearly zero debt with consistent revenue growth.

Christian Vierig/Getty Images
  • Post pandemic recovery with catalysts in play:

Revolve was hit hard by the Pandemic. Although they are an e-commerce retailer that survived and stayed strong financially last year, they aren’t Amazon. What is impressive is that they found revenue growth outside of festivals and live events during the shutdowns and closures. As things open up, they should experience a boost in sales like most consumer cyclical companies. Revolve festivals will return and management should consider better monetizing/expanding when the pandemic eases up. International expansion and Revolve’s men section, “FWRD Man,” are only in the beginning stages and represent future growth catalysts for this company.

If you are a middle/upper class female millennial or early Gen Z you probably know why Revolve is successful. This company speaks to that demographic. For everyone else, you might be scratching your head wondering how Revolve is different from the thousands of other fashion retailers. The reality is FOMO celebrity trends are real. People will pay $500 for a Balenciaga T-shirt or over $4,000 for a Valentino dress and that won’t change anytime soon. Revolve through their technology can predict the right trending items and stay financially consistent, which shows in their steady quarterly sales growth.

Revolve is a great company in its early stages. I don’t know if they have enough catalysts or growth ahead to create generational wealth like Tesla or Amazon, but I view them as a relatively safe mid-tier growth company with mid-level risk in the upcoming five years. If you believe in future E-commerce growth and social media being more prevalent in society, Revolve will be there alongside to reap the rewards. This is a really exciting time to be a Revolve shareholder as they are just entering their high-growth period. Meanwhile, traditional retailers are playing catch-up. As long as management continues to execute, the Revolve empire will stand strong by the end of this decade.